The U.S. has imposed a 50% tariff on green coffee imported from Brazil. Brazil is the world’s largest coffee producer and, for years, a dependable anchor in countless blends—ours included. A policy change of this magnitude is not a simple adjustment; it’s a structural shock that ripples from farmgate to café register.
This post explains what’s happening, why it matters for the broader coffee landscape, what it means for Tectonic’s sourcing, and how we’ll maintain quality and stability for you.
1) The Policy Shock—and Why It Spreads Beyond Brazil
A 50% tariff makes many Brazilian coffees immediately unaffordable for blends that historically depended on Brazil for body, sweetness, and balance. When U.S. roasters reduce purchases from Brazil, demand doesn’t vanish; it migrates to substitute origins such as Mexico, Colombia, Honduras, and Peru. That shift pushes up differentials (the premium over the commodity “C” market), even if the C price itself is steady.
There is no true cost‑equivalent substitute for Brazil. We can match Brazil’s flavor role in a blend (body, cocoa, nutty sweetness), but we cannot match its pre‑tariff cost efficiency. As we look to Mexico and other origins, differentials are generally in the low‑$1 range over the C market, which means that—even tariff‑free—landed prices tend to sit above what we all grew used to paying for Brazil. In short: we can preserve cup profile, but not the old Brazil price level.
2) How This Affects Our Sourcing and Blends
Our production in 2025 shows meaningful reliance on Brazilian components, especially in blends designed for a chocolate‑forward, rounded profile. With tariffs making Brazil untenable in blends, we’re shifting our focus to Mexico as a leading alternative and selectively exploring other Latin American origins that can uphold our sensory goals.
What we’re doing:
- Transitioning away from Brazil in blends while keeping quality parameters intact.
- Evaluating Mexico as a stable anchor. If early lots perform as expected, our team will travel to deepen producer relationships for long‑term stability.
- Maintaining quality control through intensive cupping and blend testing before any changes reach your cup.
Importantly, we will not make changes that compromise flavor integrity. Stability and transparency remain our guiding principles.
3) What You’ll Taste (and What You Won’t)
Expect the same hallmarks you associate with Tectonic’s profiles—approachable sweetness, cocoa‑leaning structure, and balanced acidity. Mexico lots we’re screening show promise on those points. Any adjustments you notice should be subtle and in service of consistency, not a departure in style.
4) How We’re Managing Volatility—Without the Jargon
We’re keeping an eye on two moving pieces:
- The global “C” market (the benchmark price for arabica coffee).
- Origin differentials (the premium specific coffees command over the C market).
If the U.S. broadly pivots away from Brazil, competition for alternatives can push differentials up. We’re modeling those scenarios internally and will make minimal, well‑explained adjustments only if necessary to preserve quality and supply.
5) For Our Café Partners and Wholesale Friends
- Be transparent with guests. A concise message goes a long way:“The U.S. placed a 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee, disrupting supply and raising costs across Latin America. We’ve adjusted sourcing to maintain quality and consistency.”
- Update menus and training.
- If an origin changes (e.g., Mexico components), equip your team to talk about continuity in flavor.
- Forecast thoughtfully. For high‑volume items, consider modestly larger forward orders as supply chains recalibrate. We’ll keep you posted on availability.
- Ask for the tools. If you want to plan your menu and margins, we’ve built a Tariff Cost Calculator just reach out and we’ll share it.
6) Our Commitment
We’ve always believed that quality and candor are non‑negotiable. We will continue to share what we’re seeing and why we’re acting. If markets remain orderly, you can expect stability. If differentials move sharply, we’ll communicate early and adjust once—deliberately—rather than frequently.
If you have questions about how this affects your café or home brewing, we’d love to hear from you. We’re here to help you navigate this shift—and to keep serving coffee we’re proud to put our name on.
— Deaton Pigot & The Tectonic Coffee Team